OK, some of you will have read this in the book I got the puzzle from, but if you have, don't spoil the puzzle for other people.
quote: "The Monty Hall Problem
You're on a game show on television. On this game show the idea is to win a car as a prize. The game show host shows you three doors. He says that there is a car behind one of the doors and that there are goats behind the other two doors. He asks you to pick a door. You pick a door but the door isn't opened. Then the game show host opens of the doors yo show a goat (because he knows what is behind the doors). Then he says that you have one final chance to change your mind before the doors are opened and you get a car or a goat. So he asks you if you want to change your mind and pick the other unopened door door instead. What should you do and why? "
The answer isn't as simple as it sounds. Will our Mathematicians work it out?
-- Edited by JohnK at 16:37, 2005-02-27
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Johnk
The only freedom that you値l ever really know
Is written in books from long ago
my maths is good, but my english sucks, so i was confused the first time i read it, but now i think i must be missing something cos i can't see how you can work anything out. is it just a probability question, or a trick to make people look stupid?!
quote: Originally posted by: ChallengeTheMighty "john's told me the answer, and i kinda get it, but i'm still kinda unconvinced, despite all the links he sent me proving it.
sorry, john, if i annoyed you by being a stubborn bastard. please forgive me!"
He showed me those, who am I to argue with a load of maths experts?
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I reserve... I reserve... I have a reservation... I HAVE a reservation.. What do you mean its not in the computer?
this might sound like a load of waffle, so i apologise in advance.
one of the explanations said that even though one door is open, it doesn't add any new information to the problem, and the probabilities don't change. but how can they not. if you can see that the car isn't behind the open door, how can there still be a 1 in 3 chance that it's there?
but i'm confused, cos i've now accepted what john showed me is right too. i give up.
What I suggest everyone does is draw a probability tree showing all the outcomes. I have one on my computer if anyone wants to see it. Then work out the probability from there.
That will help you choose the correct door.
:)
And Mike, not I don't think your a stubborn bastard. Just Stubborn, sometimes :P
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Johnk
The only freedom that you値l ever really know
Is written in books from long ago
